The NFL season may be two and a half months away, but it’s never too early to start looking at the odds for week one.  Believe it or not, lines for all 16 games have already been sent out by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the oddsmaking service that advises most Nevada casinos. Lines for six Week One games are already up at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Here are the Week One pointspreads and totals, as listed on VegasInsider.com.

Thursday, Sept. 4
Washington (+4½ / Over/Under 40½) at N.Y. Giants

Sunday, Sept. 7
Cincinnati (+1 / 42) at Baltimore
N.Y. Jets (-2½ / 36½) at Miami (Hilton: NYJ -3 / 35)
Kansas City (+14½ / 48) at New England (Hilton: NE -15½ / 48)
Houston (+7 / 44) at Pittsburgh
Jacksonville (-3 / 38) at Tennessee (Hilton: Jax -2½ / 37½)
Detroit (-1½ / 45) at Atlanta (Hilton: Det -1 / 42½)
Seattle (Pick ‘em / 40) at Buffalo
Tampa Bay (+3 / 44) at New Orleans
St. Louis (+7 / 44) at Philadelphia
Dallas (-3 / 48½) at Cleveland (Hilton: Dallas -3 / 49)
Carolina (+9½ / 41) at San Diego
Arizona (-2½ / 43) at San Francisco
Chicago (+10 / 45) at Indianapolis

Monday, Sept. 8
Minnesota (+3½ / 40) at Green Bay (Hilton: GB -2½ / 38)
Denver (-1½ / 42½) at Oakland

Super Bowl XXV Remix anyone?  I see lots of similiarities between this Super Bowl and that of SB XXV (except no Scott Norwood rewind - Part II the Sequel), so it’s fair to make the comparison.  I feel this showdown in Glendale, Arizona is destined to be a classic.  The “mighty” undefeated New England Patriots led by the best coach, quarterback, and wide receiver in the league squaring off against some “cinderella” road warriors that have been through so much adversity, rising up to the ocassion and challenge by responding to pull out three road postseason victories en route to the Super Bowl - your team on a “mission” to prove all the critics wrong, the New York Giants.  There is no doubt in my mind this will be a close contest for 60 competitve minutes, an ultimate battle that will come down to who plays better in the 2nd half (mainly, the 3rd quarter), who is more efficient in the red zone (difference between getting 7 and 3 is tremendous), and who controls the clock (Pats will win everytime in a shootout, NY has the edge in the run department) and has the football more.  Like I said in my five keys for the Giants to win, the time of possession factor is huge and will be a big issue Sunday.  Look for the Giants to run the ball at will against NE and for Plaxico Burress to reach double digits in catches.  Expect Bradshaw/Jacobs to team together to form a dynamic 1-2 punch that will eclipse 200 rush yards.

Can NE’s defense keep up with NY’s Weapons?  Another thing I consider is that coach Coughlin’s squad will be able to score plenty against Belichick’s 3-4 defensive unit.  NE’s cornerbacks are undersized, their LB’s are not that quick in pursuit of the ballcarrier, with the exception of Adalius Thomas, and NY offers two game-changing backs in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.  I like the chances NY has on defense against NE’s OL with the three sack artist DE set on the DL with Tuck, Strahan, and Osi Umeniyora.   At times this trio can be unstoppable and will be too much for NE to handle.  NY has an improving secondary with Ross and Madison getting healthier and I think they found a good lockdown CB in the former LSU Bayou Bengal Corey Webster.  NY’s eyes and attention have to be fully focused on #81 Randy Moss and I think they have the CB’s that have the speed to keep up with his wheels and the toughness to play physical and use bump and run coverage.  Just let Wes Welker go for 8-9 receptions, not Moss.  NY needs to do what NE did to STL back in Super Bowl XXXVI, they have to jam and get in the faces of Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Watson.  I really believe the Giants have enough to stop NE when they have the pigskin.

Another Comeback Victory for the Giants?  The Wild Card NY “football” Giants will triumph over the undefeated NE Patriots and complete one of the biggest sports upsets of all-time.  NY will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball (line of scrimmage), they will outplay the Pats thanks to a solid defensive performance (Pierce will be a difference maker) and a balanced offensive attack lead by a potent rushing game that will be clicking on all cylinders, and they will make NE play it close, something they are not so used to and work them on defense, eating up the clock and holding on to the football.  The Giants have more than enough to play better than NE and be the best team Sunday, coming out on top victorious in the Super Bowl!  A culmination of many things will have to come into play in order for this upset to happen and I like the Giants opportunity to shock the world, though not themselves.  I have the Giants Super Bowl Champions by the final outcome of:  31-26 G-Men. Marshall’s own, the 7th round draftee Ahmad Bradshaw, will be named the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl XLII.  The Formula of Bradshaw + Jacobs + Burress + 3 Pass Rushing DE’s + Strong Secondary = A Result and All-Around Effort that the Big Apple will be happy with as they see their Giants hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy! 

2008 Super Bowl Champions:  New York Giants         

I’ve heard several arguments for why the Patriots should win by more than 12 points tomorrow.
Here are the two most common:
1)”Eli is a head case. It’s just a matter of time before he throws a clunker. He can’t have that many good games in a row. He looks great one week, and terrible the next.”
2)”With two weeks to study, Belichick will design a mad scientist game-plan that will confuse Manning, and put the Giants offense on ice.”

Let’s debunk these two myths with some doses of reality. First, Manning has performed at an exceptional level against Superbowl caliber defenses for four consecutive games. He’s never played at this level before. People forget that Eli is only in his fourth full season as an NFL quarterback. Sure, he’s gone on hot streaks before that were followed with poor performances. But, this is not the same old Eli Manning. This is the new and improved version, a more mature and accurate passer.

Also, he has good help. Rookie Steve Smith has provided Manning the third WR that this offense needed. Smith missed 12 regular season games with a stress fracture. In the postseason, he and TE Boss have consistently provided Manning safety valves that can move the chains, and present match-up advantages in the red zone. At the line of scrimmage, the unsung G-Men offensive lineman have performed every bit as well as their Patriot counterparts.

Anyone who expects the same old self-destructing Giants offense hasn’t properly examined recent events. Excellent O-line + talented RB tandem + 3 deep WR + 6′7” TE with smooth route skills + experienced Manning at QB = DYNAMIC OFFENSE!

OK, lets debunk myth number two. This is not the same Patriots defense that starred in previous Superbowl victories. Three of their four starting linebackers are aged 32, 38, and 34. In years past, Belichick utilized his plethora of cerebral linebackers to confuse opposing quarterbacks. The position was an extension of the head coach’s brain on the field. However, the Patriots’ defense lacks depth where it has shined in past Superbowl victories. The LB cupboard is no longer stocked with passing down or short yardage specialists. To anyone who doubts my opinion, simply replay the highlights of the week 17 contest in New York. Manning enjoyed so much time in the pocket, he could have thrown the ball from a comfy recliner en route to 35 points.

Sure, the Patriots are capable of winning by two touchdowns against anyone. They boast arguably the best offense of all time. And, their past Superbowl experience gives them an edge in preparation. But, New England hasn’t defeated a top notch opponent by 12 or more points since way back in week 6 against the Cowboys. If New York scores in the mid 20’s, then New England would have to score close to 40 in order to cover.

It’s never easy to pick against a team on history’s doorstep, but taking the Giants plus the points is the smart play. Just don’t risk an entire week’s pay on it.

Well I did Predict an all “New”Super Bowl in my preseason picks. I was correct about New England, but I thought that their opponent would be New Orleans, not the New York Giants. In fact I did not have the Giants even making the Post Season, and predicted their coach Tom Coughlin would be searching for a new gig by now, not waiting for a much deserved contract extension. But I am still going to go with the same team that I picked to win it all during my preseason prognostications.

New York @ New England: New England 45 New York 37: I realize that the offensive juggernaut that the Patriots were throughout most of the campaign has not appeared yet in the Post Season. But I think three factors now weigh heavily in New England’s favor. First and foremost, the pressure is now equally spread on both teams, I know New York was not supposed to be in Arizona on Sunday, and they have been playing with “House Money” while beating Dallas, and then Green Bay, but they will feel the glare and the pressure of this game, as much if not more than the Patriots. Secondly, the weather will be a factor let’s remember the Patriots played their last regular season game at Giants Stadium, and the last two games in Foxborough. Not exactly balmy weather, in Arizona the weather will be just right for Brady to work his magic again. And finally the experience, which may be the most ingredient of all, the Patriots will be in their fourth Super Bowl in the last 7 years, and all though there have been numerous changes in players, the nucleus remains. Robert Kraft will be holding the Lombardi Trophy Sunday night.

 © Copyright 2008 thesackattack.com

There’s much to be said about Sunday’s two title games with the Pats and Chargers and Pack and Giants, but I am sure most of it you have heard before.  So, with just about everything said as we get finally set to play these two games, here are my picks for the two title games, this after going 3-1 last week with the only loser being the Colts.  I have gone 8-4 in the last three weeks of playoff games, 6-2 in the last two weeks.

AFC Title Game: San Diego at New England (-14)

The biggest question to me about this game will be how much the injures will play a factor on the Chargers side of the ball.  I am in the boat they will mean a lot, as even if Philip Rivers plays, in no way, shape or form will he be 100 percent.  This means the team will be counting on Billy Volek to lead them, and I don’t like that matchup at all for San Diego.  For the Chargers to score the major upset, they are going to have to run, run, and run some more. I am still perplexed at way the Jags didn’t run more last week vs the Pats, as that seems to be the one weak point on this team as a whole.  I expect to see LT, Michael Turner and Darren Sproles get plenty of shots and a lot of max protection for Volek as he plays it safe and tries to make plays only when he needs to.

For the Pats on offense, expect them to use the 1-2 punch of the passing game of Tom Brady followed by the running of Laurence Maroney to keep the Chargers D on their toes.  I do think the Chargers can have success against the Pats offense, but they have to play smart, keep the ball in front of them, and try and keep pressure on Brady.  Maroney is a key factor, as I think the last few weeks he has really added a lot to the offense with his running ability.  He is a player that the Chargers cannot overlook in this ball game, and I personally think he will have a big game.

So it’s down to this - I don’t think a 100 percent healthy Chargers team can stick with the Pats, so I really don’t think a banged up Chargers team can.  The Pats wil be 18-0 at days end, look for a big win, some big plays, and a trip to Glendale.

New England 31 San Diego 21

NFC Title Game: New York Giants at Green Bay (-7.5)

Let me just say from the start I love this game, and this is the game that I cannot wait for when it comes to Championship Sunday.  The Giants are a team that can punch you in the mouth, or take a punch for that matter, and come back for more. The Pack is a team that no one thought would be in this position, but they are, and it looks as if they have the advantage with playing at home with a QB that is hungry to make it back to the big dance.

Let’s start with the Giants. They need to do a few things in game to stop the Packers defense, and they are things that the Seahawks didn’t do last week - first and foremost they need to run the ball.  Stay with the gameplan of using the bruiser - Brandon Jacobs, and the speedy Ahmad Bradshaw to gain those tough inside and outside yards.  I realize Eli Manning has been playing a lot better than at points of the season over the last two weeks of the playoffs, but I think that if you trust him too much, the pressure of his first NFC Title game is too much, and the Pack defense will eat him for lunch.  Keep the ball safe, run a lot, and then let Eli try and make a few plays.

The Green Bay offense has a new weapon with Ryan Grant, who has been their MVP in my opinion the second half of the season.  He ran all over the Hawks last week, and I thought the Pack O-line didn’t get enough credit for how well they played.  They opened holes that a truck could have driven though.  Look for with the weather being what it will be the Pack to try and run first, and then let Brett Favre and the wide outs have some fun trying to get downfield to make some plays.  If Grant gets close to the 200 plus yards he had a week ago, it will be all Packers.

In the end, I like Green Bay in this one.  The Giants are a very tough, hard nosed team, but the Pack has proven time and time again they have what it takes to hang with anyone, and I think Favre is going to make some plays and the defense of Green Bay will be able to get a few turnovers to give them a short field.  Look for the Pack to be back in the big game in two weeks.

Green Bay 21 New York Giants 10

Well, after going 3-1 in the Wild Card Round, and then going 2-0 last Saturday, the bottom fell out for my predictions last Sunday. Of course, the real big shocker was Indianapolis losing to San Diego, after all weren’t we all expecting a Colts/Patriots re-match in the AFC  Title game this Sunday since last January? But it was not to be, and now this past week’s big question is whether Tony Dungy will return next year as head coach of the Colts. Many figured he might step down last year as he finally achieved his dream of his team attaining Super Bowl rings. We know that Coach Dungy is a very spiritual man, and eventually will probably be involved in some form of Ministry. Tony Dungy is a class act, and a great coach, and he will excel in any direction that his life takes him. As far as the Cowboys, well let’s just say Wade Phillips is on a very short leash in Dallas. What we have going into this weekend are two big factors, momentum and experience. All four teams have momentum to a certain extent, otherwise they would not be here, but only 2 of the teams have that experience factor. How important will it be, I believe it will be huge. Lets get on to the Conference Championship Games. 

San Diego @ New England: New England 38 San Diego 17: Is Rivers playing, and if so how effective can he be with problems with both his ACL and his MCL. I know Billy Volek scored the winning drive for the Chargers last weekend, but just how much fear do you think Billy Volek is generating in the minds of the New England players? “The Wonder Twins” Brady and Moss have themselves some fun in the cold.

New York @ Green Bay: Green Bay 17 New York 14: In a game reminiscent of the “Ice Bowl” Favre’s experience is the deciding factor. Eli Manning has shown some amazing growth the last 3 weeks, and I think for the first time since his initial season, Giants management and their fans have good reason for hope for the future. I just think that in these elements, at this stage of both QB’s careers Favre gets it done.

© Copyright 2008 thesackattack.com 

Well, went 3-1 for the Wild Card Weekend, with Seattle being the only team that kept me from being perfect. J-Ville did not show me an awful lot last week, against a banged up and bruised Pittsburgh Steelers team. Eli, did take the step I expected him to take, and Garcia self destructed as I also predicted. Norv Turner is all excited in San Diego, that will end this weekend as his Chargers will not get past the Colts. Well lets take a gander at the NFL Divisional Playoff game schedule.

SATURDAY GAMES

Seattle @ Green Bay: Green Bay 30 Seattle 27: Seahawks made me look foolish last weekend as I took Washington, and they took Washington apart. Hasselbeck is dinged up, Brett is rested, and it’s at Lambeau. Sorry Seattle got to go against you again.

Jacksonville @ New England: New England 31 Jacksonville 20: Jack Del Rio made a gutsy move releasing starting QB Byron Leftwich on the eve of the season, and it paid off as David Garrad has had quite a successful season. But as I wrote at the top, they did nothing to impress me against Pittsburgh. Do not see them slowing down New England juggernaut.

SUNDAY GAMES

San Diego @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis 34  San Diego 13: Colts get revenge for regular season loss against Chargers due to a Patriots loss hangover.

NY Giants @ Dallas: Dallas 35 NY Giants 31: My heart is with the Giants, but unfortunately not my head. T.O. will be as good as always, remember the Super Bowl against New England. Romo will be fine, what people tend to forget he was on VACATION last weekend. As long as he wasn’t bungee jumping, sky diving, or motorcycle racing, I personally see nothing wrong with what he did. What he should have stayed locked up in the Video tape room all last weekend? This is not the 1930’s when managers used to warn their boxers to “keep away from dames.”

 © Copyright 2007 thesackattack.com 

Went with the home teams last week which in the end was a big mistake, but we move on now to the divisional games and usually those heavily favor the home teams. There are also some big lines in each game this weekend, so we’ll have to see how that factors into picks. Here are my picks for the four matchups on Saturday and Sunday.

NFC Divisional Game: Seattle at Green Bay (-8)

The Pack has had an outstanding season, winning 13 games with the re-birth of Brett Favre. This game really favors them, as they play a Hawks team that had to rally last week vs the Redskins at home. Green Bay will use a steady diet to Ryan Grant to soften up the Hawks secondary for some shots down the field. Seattle cannot run the ball at all, and staying in this game is going to come down to how well Matt Hasselbeck throws and it’s up to the Hawks O-line to keep him safe in the pocket. I forsee the Pack making a few big plays in the secondary and possibly even special teams, as they tend to make a big play or two there at home. The Seattle defense will put up a good fight vs Favre and company, but in the end, the Pack should be able to run enough, pass enough, and shut down the Hawks passing game to advance to the NFC Title game next weekend. Green Bay 27 Seattle 14

AFC Divisional Game: Jacksonville at New England (-13.5)

Come on ride the Train…at least that is what plenty of people are doing when it comes to the Jaguars. The media and fans alike are thinking that the Jaguars are going to be able to go into Foxboro, do what they want on offense, and walk away with an upset win and a shot in the AFC Title game. Think again. In the end the Jags have had a good season, and yes, they can run the football. But remember, this is the same team that allowed the banged up Steelers to rally from 18 down last week, and their secondary is liable to give up a big play at anytime. That plays right into the hands of Tom Brady and company, as he is going to eat apart the Jags. Don’t count out the Pats defense so fast, as it’s the unit that no one ever talks about, yet they always seem to play well in big games. The Pats will do enough to slow down the Jags run game, make David Garrard make some mistakes, and easily put up over 30 to get set for another AFC Title game at home next weekend. New England 37 Jacksonville 20

AFC Divisional Game: San Diego at Indianapolis (-8)

I like the look of the Colts a lot in this game, as they come in after a week off, and most of them didn’t play the second half vs the Titans in the last game. They are finally getting some guys back, as Marvin Harrison will play and start in this contest. The Chargers didn’t run well last week, and while the Titans front four is better than the Colts, Indy still has some guys that can make some plays and slow down L.T. and the Chargers. Philip Rivers will need to be totally mistake free, but will be without leading pass catcher Antonio Gates, which is going to be a big factor here. The Colts will use a lot of spread and throw quick to slow down the Chargers pass rush. Don’t look for Manning to throw six picks here like the first game, and look for a much more sound attack for the Colts that should be able to take advantage of a Chargers team that had to play hard last week and now have to travel and play in a tough dome in Indy. Indianapolis 24 San Diego 14

NFC Divisional Game: New York Giants at Dallas (-7.5)

Could the third time be the charm for the Giants? They have lost twice to Dallas, with each time the Cowboys having big offensive days with Tony Romo looking like a gunslinger making big plays. This time it’s a different game, and there are plenty of distractions around a Cowboys team that to me has not played all that well since their Thursday night win over the Packers. They have injury issues with Terrell Owens and Romo, and Romo has had to answer more questions about his love life this week than about the Giants, and I think that is a clear distraction. Plus the fact you have a Giants team that should be able to put heat on Romo, and hold the Cowboys run game in check. For the Giants, Eli Manning was on last week, and he will look to make plays down the field. Look for New York to give more shots to speedy rookie running back Ahmad Bradshaw as well to soften up the Cowboys defense. I just have a bad feeling that Dallas is removed from playing a good game, and everything on and off the field is finally going to bite them. NY Giants 23 Dallas 21

In this edition of Gridiron Gabbin Site Editor Matt Loede will sit down with our handicapper - Sportspicker Fabio and get his views on this weekends Sunday’s NFL Wild Card games.  Click below and listen to hear the picks, as well as great info that will get you ready for the Saturday games inside the NFL.

 

 Standard Podcast [17:35m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (399)

It’s the Post Season where everyone starts at 0-0 and every thing starts anew. And I guess to a certain extent that is true. But injuries don’t suddenly miraculously heal, and trends that have formed down the stretch many times are very good indicators. Well let’s take our first dip into the NFL Post Season as Wild Card Weekend Kicks off the festivities.

SATURDAY GAMES

Washington @ Seattle: Washington 27 Seattle 14: Washington is inspired playing for their fallen comrade, while Seattle lost to Atlanta last week. Sorry I don’t care what the circumstances that’s inexcusable, even if your ball boy is the QB.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh: Jacksonville 21 Pittsburgh 17: No Willie Parker, and Big Ben at best banged up, leave Pittsburgh with too many holes. I am not looking at the first game between these two teams as any kind of a barometer even though Jacksonville won. That was a Patriots hangover unfortunately for the fans at Heinz Field it will not be a fun evening.

SUNDAY GAMES  

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay: NY Giants 24 Tampa Bay 13: Jeff Garcia is griping again, and when Garcia gripes his game usually is the victim. Garcia is sniping about the fact that he feels rusty after not playing in the last few games. And with Garcia, that will weigh on his head going into the game and effect the outcome. Besides, we just may have seen a step in the growth of Eli Manning last week against New England.

Tennessee @ San Diego: San Diego 34 Tennessee 14: Titans made a nice run and deserve to be here. But even Norv Turner can’t screw this up. If he does he best pack his bags.

 © Copyright 2007 thesackattack.com