Nov

29

Coltsgab.com Editor Stephen Rhodes’ Picks – Week 13

Posted by Stephen Rhodes under Picks 

Cleveland Browns quarterback Derek Anderson
Last Week: 12-4
Season To Date: 75-58-3

A strong week for me, thanks to the vast majority of teams covering the spread. I’ll look to hopefully build on last week with a repeat of Week 12.

Green Bay (+7) at Dallas

I don’t think this will be an offensive shootout despite what the NFL pundits have been saying. Points will be scored, for sure; however, don’t expect a 42-35 game. I think the Green Bay linebacking duo of Barnett and Hawk will have to do with the final outcome of this game. I think the Cowboys running game will dictate who wins this one – in this case, Dallas wins by 3.

San Francisco (+3) at Carolina

The tale of a sucky offense (San Francisco) vs. a mediocre defense (Carolina). All things being equal, expect a low-scoring affair, with the 49ers’ running game making the difference this week. San Francisco not only beats the spread, they win this one outright.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Folks, don’t underestimate the Jaguars. While their QB is just OK, their running duo and defense is something to worry about. And because David Garrard is the Jags’ quarterback, the colts will feast on interceptions and provide enough pressure on passing downs to make Peyton’s job easier. Expect Addai to rush for between 90-105 yards and a TD this week. Indy by 7 (if Harrison is out), 10 if Harrison plays.

San Diego (-5.5) at Kansas City

This game will be the beginning of the end for all of the pretenders to the AFC West throne. The Chiefs’ Kolby Smith will look like the one-hit wonder as the Chargers run defense will be more productive, as opposed to Oakland’s last week. Antonio Gates will have a good game, as usual. Even Philip Rivers should be able to produce some decent numbers this week. San Diego wins big.

New York Jets at Miami (-1.5)

Both teams have something in common: both teams have no offense (maybe the Jets have the edge at RB), and both teams’ defense are suspect. So what gives here? Expect a low-scoring, boring game from beginning to end. Dolphins kicker Jay Feely wins this game late with a field goal, allowing Miami the luxury of not becoming trhe only team in NFL history to win all of their games (1972) and also lose all of their games. Miami by 3.

Detroit (+3.5) at Minnesota

I’m still not of the thought of Minnesota getting a wild-card berth this season. I think this will be the game where Detroit rights their listless ship. Kitna will throw for 280+ yards and 2 TD’s Sunday, while surprisingly, the Lions run D limits Vikings RB Chester Taylor’s productivity. Detroit wins by 4.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5)

No recent word on if Garcia plays this weekend (I say he doesn’t), but regardless if he or Gradkowski plays, the Saints win this one easily. Why, you ask? Simple – the Saints will stifle what little running game the Bucs have, which in turn will make Tampa’s QB of the week a “running man”. The Bucs’ secondary is facing Drew Brees, not Joey Harrington. New Orleans wins this one by 7.

Seattle (+3) at Philadelphia

Philadelphia’s defense is going to need to step up as I doubt A.J. Feeley is gonna make people forget about Donovan McNabb – at least this week. The Eagles’ Brian Westbrook will do well, but the Seahawks’ secondary will make the difference here as I expect them to pick off Feeley 2 or 3 times. Seattle wins by 3.

Atlanta at St. Louis (-4)

The Falcons should just mail this one in and save the airfares. Holt and Jackson will make a mockery of the Falcons’ defense. The only good thing going for the Falcons this week is that this loss will get them that much closer to that coveted high first-round pick that they’ll sorely need. St. Louis wins by 10 – at least. Can you say Brian Brohm, Atlanta?

Houston (+4) at Tennessee

Nashville, we’ve got a problem. That problem is the tandem of Texans quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson. While true that the Titans run D is decent, the Texans have less of a running game than even the Green Bay Packers (in my opinion). Schaub will embarrass the Titans’ secondary and the game will be decided around mid-3rd quarter. Houston should win this one easily.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Washington

This game will be an emotional one, due to the untimely death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor. How the Redskins will handle that during the game is speculative at this point, but all indicators point towards Buffalo passing the ball more than usual against the Redskins’ secondary. Buffalo’s special teams, I think, will be the deciding factor here as the Bills win a close one.

Cleveland (+1.5) at Arizona

Are you kidding me? Arizona loses to the 49ers yet are installed as a 1.5 point favorite? C’mon now. The Browns will have the boxer’s mentality – meaning that Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis will soften up the Cards’ D-line, then Browns QB Derek Anderson will throw the ball at least 35 times against the suddenly-depleted Cards’ secondary. This game is like Evander Holyfield (in his prime) boxing Butterbean. Cleveland wins this one easily.

Denver (-3.5) at Oakland

Denver is pissed – and Oakland is the whipping boy this week. Yes, Oakland has a running attack, but that’s all they have going for them. Culpepper will be on his back often and the Broncos RB-of-the-week (Henry/Young/whoever) will rack up 100+ yards on the ground and a TD. Cutler will just have to remember to manage the game wisely. Denver wins by 7.

New York Giants (-2) at Chicago

Which Eli will we get this week? If the Chicago Hesters Bears have anything to say about it, they’d prefer last week’s version. But that’s the problem; Manning will rebound from last week’s debacle and do just fine against the Bears’ secondary. But I expect the Giants run defense to pay dividends, making life hell for one Adrian Peterson (no, not the Minnesota version). New York wins this one by 4.

Cincinnati (+9) at Pittsburgh

It isn’t often where field conditions make a difference for a team, yet that may be what’s happening this weekend. That aside, I like the chances of Roethlisberger throwing for 275+ yards and 2 TD’s, with Willie Parker scoring once himself. But at the same time, the Bengals’ Carson Palmer has some weapons, too. Expect a relatively high-scoring game (not 3-0 like last week), with Pittsburgh winning the game late.

New England (-18.5) at Baltimore

Just because the Philadelphia Eagles put a scare into the Patriots last week doesn’t mean that history will repeat itself. Facts are facts – Baltimore has no offense, while New England has one of the best defenses in the NFL. New England has tons of offense while the Ravens’ defense is a shell of its former self. All things being equal (unequal?), New England will win this one like they do most of the other weeks of the season – early and by a bunch.


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