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Last week: 8-7-1
Season to date: 63-54-3

I went a mediocre 8-7-1 this past week, as some teams who were favored underachieved. I will look to correct last week’s abberation with these turkey-fueled picks:

Thursday

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit
I know what you’re thinking – that Detroit’s defense is improved. And you know what? You’re correct. They have this knack of creating turnovers. Unfortunately, they’re playing the Packers at Lambeau Field, which means that Green Bay’s offense will be firing on all cylinders. Green Bay wins by at least 7.

New York Jets (+14.5) at Dallas
The Jets did the unexpected in upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers last week – major props to them. Now they get to face a real offense that is the Dallas Cowboys. The ‘Boys defense will make Clemens’ day miserable, in general. Lightning isn’t gonna strike the same bottle twice. Dallas wins by 14.

Indianapolis (-11.5) at Atlanta
I would suspect that the turkey dinners settling in the stadium crowd’s stomachs, combined with the lackluster effort that the Falcons provide, will put them all to sleep. The Colts’ defense will record at least 4 sacks on Falcons quarterback Joey Harrington; on the flip side, I expect RB Joseph Addai to explode against the very depleted Falcons D-line (140 yards, 2 TD’s). Indianapolis by 17 – at least.

Sunday

Denver (Pick’em) at Chicago
It seems that the Broncos could pick up a fresh body from the local unemployment office and make them a successful running back. Hard to say at this early date who their starting running back will be, but know this – Denver wins this game because of their defense (read:multiple interceptions by Bears QB Rex Grossman). Denver wins by 6.

Tennessee at Cincinnati (Pick’em)
I cannot, for the life of me, pinpoint what went wrong with Tennessee last week. Especially since it was a multitude of things. But much like Denver did, expect Bengals QB Carson Palmer to pick apart the Titans’ secondary at will. The Bengals running game won’t do much, but then again, they won’t have to. Cincinnati by 7 (at least).

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-7.5)
Jacksonville is on a serious roll, as evidenced by their pasting of the Chargers last week. Expect more of the same here – only difference being that Buffalo is more depleted, offensively, than San Diego is. The Jags’ defense makes the difference in this one; Jacksonville covers easily.

Oakland (+5.5) at Kansas City
You thought the Chiefs’ offense was anemic now? Well consider that Priest Holmes is out – possibly for good. Factor in that their QB is Brodie Croyle and you have the makings of a snoozefest at Arrowhead. At least Oakland has a faint resemblance of an offense (not much but it’s there). Oakland should win the ball-control battle which should be enough for them to squeak this one out. Oakland by 3.

Houston at Cleveland (-3.5)
This one’s one of the tougher games to pick. One one hand, you know what Cleveland is all about – a high-powered offense and a questionable defense. On the other hand, Houston has QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson back. All things being equal here, expect some offensive fireworks to take place. And look for Cleveland QB Derek Anderson to be the hero late in this game. Cleveland by 7.

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis
St. Louis’ offense resembled its former self last week, but I have this feeling that the Seahawks defense will keep the Rams’ Steven Jackson grounded, which will give more opportunities for Rams QB Marc Bulger to throw more picks. Seattle’s offense will be just good enough not to lose the game. Seattle covers easily.

Minnesota at New York Giants (-7)
Minnesota is the perfect opponent for the Giants this week. While true that New York lost DE Mathias Kiwanuka for the season, it won’t matter as the pass rush will be successful, regardless. Chester Taylor will have to pull off a Herculean-like effort to keep the Vikings relevant this Sunday; I just don’t see that happening. Giants by 10.

New Orleans (-3) at Carolina
First glance you see a Saints offense that is superior to the Panthers. On the other hand, neither team’s defense has shown up lately. But since Carolina’s QB is their cousin Vinny, the Saints will finally wake up and seize some interception opportunities on their way to a narrow victory.

Washington at Tampa Bay (-3)
Tampa Bay’s resurgence of late isn’t because of their offense. As a matter of fact, their defense is the reason why they win this Sunday. Expect Redskins QB Jason Campbell to throw at least 2 (maybe 3) interceptions. RB Clinton Portis should do OK, but it will not be nearly enough. Tampa Bay wins by 9.

San Francisco at Arizona (-10)
San Francisco doesn’t have an offense. Arizona does. The major question here is this: which Cardinals defensive player becomes the hero this week? If I was the 49ers braintrust, I’d highly consider drafting a QB with their 1st round pick in 2008. Arizona by 14.

Baltimore (+9) at San Diego
I think this is the week that the Chargers offense shows up. San Diego wins this one, but I think that turnovers committed by San Diego will keep this game relatively close. Baltimore can play the spoiler now that their season’s over; meanwhile, the Chargers are on playoff life support. San Diego by 7.

Philadelphia (+23.5) at New England
This game should be over by mid-3rd quarter. The Eagles, unlike Buffalo, will put up a fight in this game. New England wins this game easily, but 23 1/2 points? I think not.

Monday

Miami (+16) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s poor showing last week vs. the Jets makes you wonder if there’s problems within the team that haven’t been addressed or talked about? Regardless, their secondary without Troy Polamalu and their offense without Santonio Holmes won’t miss a beat, as Willie Parker reprises his role as the Mack truck. You can rest assured that the Dolphins will want the license plate number from that truck. Pittsburgh wins, but not by 16.5 (14 is more like it).