Nov

9

Coltsgab.com Editor Stephen Rhodes’ Picks – Week 10

Posted by Stephen Rhodes under Picks 

Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch

Last Week: 6-8-0
Overall: 46-43-1

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4)
The Titans’ defense will be the story here as they sack Jaguars’ QB Quinn Gray at least 3 times, rendering him ineffective. The 2-headed monster aka Fraud Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will do OK vs. the Titans’ D-line. But it will be Subway’s poster boy, LenDale White, who does the damage; expect 23-25 carries, 120 yards on the ground as Tennessee wins this one by at least 7.

Denver (+3) at Kansas City
I am quite disappointed in what Denver has done thus far this season; despite that, this game’s winnable for Denver as the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson is out for this week and possibly longer. I just cannot envision Priest Holmes doing anything substantial against Denver this week, which means that KC will have to pass more than they’d like. Cutler will do just enough to win at Arrowhead this weekend. Broncos by 4.

Buffalo (-3) at Miami
It must suck to be Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron right now. Ronnie Brown? Gone. Chris Chambers? Gone. Look for this to be a massacre of epic proportions. Marshawn Lynch and J.P. Losman will look like All-Stars (oh – Lee Evans, too) against this team that is obviously retooling for next year. Buffalo by 10 (or more depending if Jauron calls off the dogs in the 4th quarter).

Cleveland (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
This isn’t your father’s Cleveland Browns. This version has offensive weapons. With Pittsburgh, you pretty much know what you’re getting – a run game and very good defense. Having said that, this game won’t be as high-scoring as one might expect. Something in the 27-20 range or thereabouts. The Steeler secondary will prove to be the saviors this week as Cleveland’s Derek Anderson has that rare off day. Pittsburgh by 7.

St. Louis at New Orleans (-11.5)
Since the Rams have written off this season, one wonders what their owner, Georgia Frontiere, does in her free time (dabble in her Tammy Faye Messner makeup kit?). The saints will run all over the Rams, both in the air and on the ground. It is entirely possible that QB Drew Brees throws for 400+ yards and 3 TD’s and remotely possible that RB Reggie Bush finally eclipses 100 yards rushing. In any case, this will be an ugly game for the Rams. New Orleans should win by at least 14.

Atlanta (+4) at Carolina
It’s snoozer games such as this one that makes picking games difficult. Atlanta’s running game is finally waking up. But on the flip side, Joey Harrington’s their QB this weekend. Carolina’s defense can be good (when they feel like it), and it appears that RB DeAngelo Williams is the de facto starter. DeAngelo should do well vs. the Panthers’ D-line this weekend and the secondary should do surprisingly well. Carolina wins, but not by 4. More like 3 or less.

Philadelphia (+3) at Washington
The star of this game will be Eagles RB Brian Westbrook; he has always done well vs. Washington, and that shouldn’t change this weekend. McNabb will be a good custodian of the football (read: make few mistakes). Washington’s Clinton Portis should do fine vs. Philadelphia, to the tune of 90-110 on the ground and a TD. But Philadelphia wins this one convincingly.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-6)
Can you imagine how bad the Vikings would be without the 2007 Rookie Of The Year Adrian Peterson? Peterson will be the only reason Minnesota is relevant this weekend, as Green Bay’s defense will neutralize what passing game Minnesota throws their way. And it is almost a certainty that Green Bay’s Brett Favre will put up sick numbers (350 in the air, 2 TD’s). Don’t worry about the Packers’ running game; it reminds me of that line from the Blazing Saddles movie: “Running game? Running game? We don’t need no stinking running game!!” Green Bay wins this one by 10 (if the running game shows up, then bump up the win differential by 7).

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4)
I have completely given up on the Bengals. You’d think they’d put up a fight vs. the Bills last week. Of course not. I have this feeling that coach Marvin Lewis has lost control of this team. I think cincinnati will put up some decent offensive numbers in the air, but Baltimore will rise to the occasion and limit the Bengals to field goals for most of the game. By the way – look for Ravens RB Willis McGahee to explode against the Bengals (look for 150+ on the ground and 2 TD’s). Baltimore by 7.

Chicago (-3.5) at Oakland
Don’t expect lots of offensive fireworks – unless you consider kickoffs or punt returns for touchdowns by the Bears’ Devin Hester offense in your book. Defense will be the rule of the day at McAfee Coliseum. One of the uglier games on the docket this week. Chicago wins by 7.

Dallas (-1) at New York Giants
The must-see game this week, in my opinion. Expect lots of scoring from both sides. Also expect lots of sacks by the Giants’ D-line, as well. Terrell Owens should get 100+ yards and a TD and about the same for New York’s Plaxico Burress. But the wild card, I think, will be Dallas’ Jason Witten. He should make the difference as ball control will make or break the Cowboys. A close game, but a game-winning field goal by Dallas’ Nick Folk should seal the win for the Cowboys.

Detroit (+1) at Arizona
I finally admit it – the Lions are for real. I was expoecting a letdown right about this juncture of the season – it hasn’t happened. Why the oddsmakers have Arizona as 1-point favorites, I have not a clue. That aside, I look for Lions RB Kevin Jones to get 100+ yards on the ground and QB Jon Kitna to put up decent numbers, as well. I have officially given up on Arizona’s Kurt Warner. After the Lions get done with him, he won;t be able to differentiate the difference between paper or plastic. Detroit by 7 (at least).

Indianapolis at San Diego (+3.5)
Interesting game at Qualcomm Stadium. San Diego and Indianapolis both have offensive weapons. They both have decent defenses (Colts’ defense a little better). Don’t expect the chargers D-line to give up 300+ yards on the ground this week. But do expect the colts’ Peyton Manning to put up great numbers against a shaky San Diego secondary (360+ yards, 3 TD’s) and RB Joseph Addai to get 85-95 yards on the ground and a TD. San diego should get success from LaDanian Tomlinson (120+ yards on the ground and a TD) and TE Antonio Gates (90-100 yards receiving and a TD). A good amount of scoring to be had by both sides. But Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri will be the difference maker late in the game. Indianapolis by 3.

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)
It’s games like this that make me glad that USA Network has WWE RAW in their schedule on Monday nights. For those of you who follow WWE RAW, you know what the Survivor Series PPV is all about. You also know that one of the matches during the PPV is Umaga vs. Hornswoggle. Seattle is Umaga, while San Francisco is Hornswoggle. While the WWE is scripted, this game is not. Seattle’s defense will obliterate SF’s passing game (what little bit there is) and RB Shaun Alexander will run all over the 49ers’ D-line. Seattle should win by 14.


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